Statistical Modelling of Monthly Domestic Consumption of Nigerian Petroleum Products
Resumen
This work is a time series analysis of the monthly domestic consumption of Nigerian Petroleum products. The realization analyzed is a 110-point series which spans from July 2006 to August 2015. Atime plot of the data shows a generally downward trend. Even though the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test is significant, the series could not be said to be stationary because its correlogram reveals an underlying trend and a 12 monthly seasonality. A seasonal difference of the series shows no trend. Its correlogram is suggestive of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model of order (0,0,1)x(1,1,1) . Diagnostic checking 12 confirms its adequacy. For instance its residuals are largely uncorrelated and are normally distributed. Forecasting and simulations of the monthly domestic consumption quantities could therefore be done using the model.
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Referencias
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